Y Pwyllgor Cydraddoldeb, Llywodraeth Leol a Chymunedau Y Bumed Senedd

Equality, Local Government and Communities Committee - Fifth Senedd

14/01/2021

Aelodau'r Pwyllgor a oedd yn bresennol

Committee Members in Attendance

Dawn Bowden
Delyth Jewell
Huw Irranca-Davies
John Griffiths Cadeirydd y Pwyllgor
Committee Chair
Mandy Jones
Mark Isherwood

Y rhai eraill a oedd yn bresennol

Others in Attendance

Anthony Hunt Arweinydd, Cyngor Bwrdeistref Sirol Torfaen
Leader, Torfaen County Borough Council
Dr Chris Llewelyn Prif Weithredwr, Cymdeithas Llywodraeth Leol Cymru
Chief Executive, Welsh Local Government Association
Jon Rae Cyfarwyddwr Adnoddau, Cymdeithas Llywodraeth Leol Cymru
Director of Resources, Welsh Local Government Association
Llinos Medi Arweinydd, Cyngor Sir Ynys Môn
Leader, Isle of Anglesey County Council
Sam Rowlands Arweinydd, Cyngor Bwrdeistref Sirol Conwy
Leader, Conwy County Borough Council

Swyddogion y Senedd a oedd yn bresennol

Senedd Officials in Attendance

Ben Harris Cynghorydd Cyfreithiol
Legal Adviser
Catherine Hunt Ail Glerc
Second Clerk
Chloe Davies Dirprwy Glerc
Deputy Clerk
Jonathan Baxter Ymchwilydd
Researcher
Naomi Stocks Clerc
Clerk
Osian Bowyer Ymchwilydd
Researcher

Cofnodir y trafodion yn yr iaith y llefarwyd hwy ynddi yn y pwyllgor. Yn ogystal, cynhwysir trawsgrifiad o’r cyfieithu ar y pryd. Lle mae cyfranwyr wedi darparu cywiriadau i’w tystiolaeth, nodir y rheini yn y trawsgrifiad.

The proceedings are reported in the language in which they were spoken in the committee. In addition, a transcription of the simultaneous interpretation is included. Where contributors have supplied corrections to their evidence, these are noted in the transcript.

Cyfarfu'r pwyllgor drwy gynhadledd fideo.

Dechreuodd y cyfarfod am 13:30.

The committee met by video-conference.

The meeting began at 13:30. 

1. Cyflwyniad, ymddiheuriadau, dirprwyon a datgan buddiannau
1. Introductions, apologies, substitutions and declarations of interest

Welcome, everyone, to this meeting of the Equality, Local Government and Communities Committee, our first meeting of the new year. Our first item today, item 1, is introductions, apologies, substitutions and declarations of interest. We haven't received any apologies. In accordance with Standing Order 34.19, I have determined that the public are excluded from the meeting today in order to protect public health, but in accordance with Standing Order 34.21, notice of this decision was included in the agenda for this meeting, which was published on Monday of this week.

We are broadcasting live, however, on Senedd.tv with all participants joining via video-conference, and a Record of Proceedings will be published as usual. Apart from the procedural adaptations, all other requirements under Standing Orders remain in place. The meeting is bilingual, and simultaneous translation from Welsh to English is available.

Just to remind everyone, the microphones will be controlled centrally, so there's no need to turn them on or off individually. Are there any declarations of interest? No. Okay, well just to note as well that Dawn Bowden has kindly agreed to temporarily chair if I'm unable to continue for a technological reason or any other reason.

2. Craffu ar Gyllideb Ddrafft Llywodraeth Cymru ar gyfer 2021-22 - sesiwn dystiolaeth 1: Cymdeithas Llywodraeth Leol Cymru
2. Scrutiny of the Welsh Government draft budget 2021-22 - evidence session 1: Welsh Local Government Association

Right, item 2 on our agenda today, then, is scrutiny of the Welsh Government's draft budget for 2021-22. This is our first evidence session with the Welsh Local Government Association, and I'm very pleased to welcome Councillor Anthony Hunt, leader of Torfaen County Borough Council, Councillor Llinos Medi, leader of the Isle of Anglesey County Council, Councillor Sam Rowlands, leader of Conwy County Borough Council, Chris Llewelyn, chief executive of the Welsh Local Government Association, and Jon Rae, who is director of resources, again at the WLGA. Welcome very much to you all. 

If it's okay, we'll begin immediately with questions, and perhaps I could ask one or two before other Member continue. First of all, then, on the impact of COVID-19 on the budget and future planning, the WLGA paper notes that medium-term financial plans agreed as part of that budget process for 2020-21 are no longer valid as a consequence of the pandemic. I wonder if you could tell the committee what this means for local authorities as a result. Who would like to begin? Anthony, would you, perhaps?

This is where we all speak at once or no-one speaks at all. The joys of technology. Obviously, there's a multifaceted question there. The impact of COVID, of course, on planning has been profound. There's the impact of that fact, of course, on our medium-term financial plans of this year's settlement, which is positive in addressing the pressures this year, but of course it's not a multi-year settlement, so obviously we don't have that certainty for future years, which is something we often comment on when we give this evidence. So, those are the three different points. Obviously, this year's very special because of the particular pressures that are on our budgets this year because of COVID. 

Yes, thanks, Mr Chairman, and thanks for the invite to your committee today. It's really appreciated in terms of the opportunity to share with you all. So, yes, certainly an important question for us in local government at the moment. I think the overriding word, which I'm sure you are also dealing with in the Senedd, is 'uncertainty', and in terms of trying to plan for future years in normal circumstances, it's difficult enough. Not knowing exactly when we will get through what it is we're working through certainly creates another layer. So, I suppose what could we do about that, then, I suppose it would be good if areas where we have control over creating certainty, that that certainty could be provided. So, things that spring to mind, which I'm sure you'll want to explore further, are things like the future of certain grants, whether they be capital grants or revenue grants that are within the control of Welsh Government. Bringing some certainty around some areas that we do have control over would help, I think, because, as I say, that overarching word of 'uncertainty', the more we can chip away at that and create certainty, I think that would certainly help us to plan and to deliver the services that all of our residents need and want. Thanks.

13:35

Yes, and I think not to repeat, but it's been quite difficult ever since being a councillor to have a medium-term financial plan that you know is solid, because we're always working with changes within our services. Our services have always dealt with emergencies, but what we have now is an emergency on a much larger scale. And we've seen service pressures along our journeys as leaders and as councillors. What's absolutely difficult now is planning for that forward planning of the impact of COVID on every service; education—we all know that there was going to be a slip there; social services is one where we don't know what long COVID will look like, young people that have had COVID and the implications for social services; the economy. So, everything that COVID has touched will have a long-term impact on us as local government. And I think, more than anything, short term, it's just that clear understanding of the hardship fund as well, because that would then just support us for at least the next 12 months, because that has been invaluable to us as local government over this last nine to 10 months. Diolch.

Diolch, Llinos. Chris, would you want to add anything in terms of the practicalities of this?

Financial planning—any kind of planning, really—depends on—. What everybody wants is some degree of certainty, security and predictability. As colleagues have mentioned today, as the association we always lobby for multi-year settlements to enable authorities to plan into the future in terms of how they deliver their services, and so on. That's challenging within the public sector in any circumstances, but in the current situation the combination of COVID but, in reality, other tumultuous circumstances as well. It's been an unsettling period for a variety of reasons—the challenges of leaving the European Union, other factors as well, have made it very difficult. 

Authorities, as the Welsh Government has had, have had a one-year settlement. That isn't ideal; we're dealing with the COVID pressures as well. And the truth is we've had discussions during the course of today with the First Minister and other service Ministers as well, and the truth is we're in the middle of this crisis at the moment. There are immediate challenges facing every part of the public sector. There are medium-term challenges, and the truth is there are long-term challenges as well. As far as the services that local authorities provide, the reality is we're probably going to have to find a way of living with COVID into the future, which will have an impact on medium term and longer term planning as well. So, I think it is important to understand that unsettling context, and however well we work together as different institutions, it is still going to be very challenging for us all. 

Okay. Thanks for that, Chris. Just to follow up, in terms of the medium term, how does the draft budget change medium-term planning, if it does? Who would like to offer an opinion on that? Jon.

13:40

Thank you, Chair. It's obviously linked to your last question as well. At the time our paper was written, which we've submitted in evidence, medium-term plans were being recast. Obviously, regardless of the fact we've got an annual settlement, a one-year settlement for 2021-22, local authorities will still have to lay out some kind of medium-term financial plan. I think that's important to understand, and it goes back to Councillor Rowlands's point that we just have to manage the uncertainty. That's linked to how certain we can be about certain funding lessons—Councillor Rowlands mentioned that in terms of grants—and, importantly, I think, from next year, to what extent our core budget is separated to some extent from the pressures we're going to face in terms of COVID.

I think the preferred route of almost everyone who's budgeting in the public sector at the minute is to keep the core budget separate from anything that's COVID related, but there are inevitably going to be grey areas. How much of our future budget is going to be scarred by COVID? What will the impact of that be on social care, for example? Councillor Medi and I were just discussing that yesterday. What will be the impact on other budgets such as homelessness? Will the hardship fund roll over into next year and potentially beyond? If there's a guarantee that the hardship fund does roll over and it operates in a very similar way to the way it's operated this year—. I have to say, it's been very successful. It's a claims-based process. There have been frustrations with it—I wouldn't argue with that—but it has been very successful, and if that manages to operate in the future, certainly into next year, then I think that again takes away some of the uncertainty that Councillor Rowlands referred to.

Thanks again, Mr Chairman. I'm sure, again, we may touch on it further, but in terms of the COVID-related impact and draft budget impact here, the income loss is something that is difficult also to plan for. When we plan a medium-term financial plan, we would ordinarily be setting out some expectations around what income might be coming through, and of course we've been encouraged over the years to look at various ways of creating income, which has proven beneficial. Right now, I'm sure many local authorities are feeling the impact of many of those income streams, such as leisure. In Conwy, we have Venue Cymru, as you know, which is a large conference facility. All these various income streams—it's understanding what the impact of the pandemic will be on those, not just in terms of additional expenditure to manage the impact of the pandemic, but the income loss as a result of not knowing what impact that may have. There may be some positive benefits in terms of some of those areas. We may see more staycations, for example, which may drive some more people to areas like Conwy who may want to come on holiday. We would certainly encourage that when it's safe to do so. But yes, in terms of medium-term planning, I think the income-loss element is something that we can't lose sight of, as well.

Okay, Sam. Thank you for that. If nobody else wants to say anything on this particular aspect, we will move on to Mark Isherwood. 

Thank you and good afternoon all. Could I start, actually, Chair, with a point that was in the previous issue referred to, and just ask for your collective views and individual views on the Minister's decision at this stage not to include a funding floor for 2021-22?

Obviously, we'll continue to campaign and to lobby for a separately funded floor within the settlement, to try and provide certainty to those councils that are at one end of the spectrum, especially at a time when there’s so much uncertainty elsewhere in our budgets. So, we will continue to press that case, even though we recognise the very positive settlement that’s been reached for the majority of councils.

13:45

Thanks again, Chair. To add to that further, I certainly echo Councillor Hunt’s comments there. I think the range this time should be considered by Members of the Senedd in terms of the range of the settlement provided to local authorities. I’m not sure it’s usually that wide; I think it goes from a 2 per cent increase up to 5.6 per cent. A number of local authorities are around the average, which is understandable. But I think the funding floor would help to create what may look like a fairer settlement for all, if that funding floor was provided, and again, just to mitigate that range, with those right at the bottom having to, in a very short space of time, understand how it's going to impact their budget planning. What have we got—two months or three months until the next financial year will be thrust upon us? It’s not a huge amount of time for those towards the bottom of that list to be able to get themselves into a good position.

Okay. Thank you, Sam. Welcome, Delyth Jewell, one of our committee members, our final committee member for the day, to the meeting. Did I see a hand there, sorry? Yes, Chris.

Just to reinforce Sam’s point, in recent years, the WLGA has argued for a floor, and it might seem contradictory, because on the one hand, the WLGA support the implementation of the formula, and it reflects population changes and sparsity and deprivation and so on, but also, in this year in particular, because there is such a spread, a range, in terms of the settlement, and Sam’s point that we’ve discussed during the course of this session—the uncertainty, the difficulty and the challenges that authorities face in terms of planning. Those authorities at the bottom with the lower settlement figures will find it additionally really difficult to respond to the current circumstances. The demand for local authority services is relatively inelastic and, given the timing of this year’s settlement and the need to set budgets and to plan for the next year, our argument would be that a floor is needed to soften the impact of those changes.

Just quickly, I think it shows the difficulty with the medium-term financial plan. That floor would at least give us some security. The formula is based on—. This has happened because people have moved from those areas that are having less this year, but you can’t stop a service instantly. So, for us, on basic operational side of it, it's impossible for us to be able to react with that change in population. So, a floor, then, would mean that it doesn’t make a difference because we know our budget will go down in a year’s time, but what it does is it gives us time, because with all the consultation challenges that we have on any change of service, we can’t react quickly enough. So, that floor would just give us time to have more of a smooth running of a change in service as well. Diolch.

I just wanted to come in behind that, really. Lots of the options that we’d have for service transformation, for example, in normal years, to address a shortfall in that kind of circumstance, just aren’t open to us at the moment, because the officers, frankly, that we’d use to instigate those sorts of radical changes are tied up with the here and now. That’s a very important point. Our capacity to deal with changes that are sudden as opposed to gradual is very limited this year.

Thank you. Of course, we all know that Wrexham and Ceredigion will be particularly interested in the responses that we’ve just heard. Moving on, if I may, to non-domestic rates, the expected budget for non-domestic rates has fallen by £35 million. The Minister states, however, that the increase in local government general revenue funding will ensure a net cash increase of £176 million to the local government settlement. To what extent do you believe funding provided to address the shortfall in estimated non-domestic rates is sufficient, and what action would you expect or hope the Welsh Government to take if the shortfall is higher than anticipated?

13:50

We were actually going to come on to non-domestic rates a little later, but who would like to—? We'll come back to it, perhaps. I think it might be better if we do, because we've got a certain order that logically helps us. Mark, I wonder if you might—

Yes, the bullet points under 1, Mark, the impact of COVID-19 on the budget, and—

Oh, I apologise. I see what you mean. I was going off the actual number figure. Right. In that case, to what extent do you believe the pandemic has impacted on local authority programmes of budget savings and transformation that had been agreed for the next financial year, and what will expected or unexpected financial pressures in the current financial year mean for those programmes?

This comes back to the point that we just talked about as well, doesn't it? It has inevitably affected our ability to plan, to make savings, to transform, both in this year and in the year to come. I know that the Society of Welsh Treasurers had a survey that asked this question and there are a number of responses to that. Lots of savings measures have become more difficult and have been delayed because of the impact of COVID; others have been just made unviable, I think. As we've looked, personally from a Torfaen perspective, on how we balance our budget this year, we've had to take great notice of the capacity that we have to deliver wholescale service change at a time when there is so much uncertainty and when there's a pandemic going in the background. So, I think you'll find some councils have had to slip savings into future years, and some councils have had to readjust their in-year position, or their position for next year, due to savings measures not being able to be realised in that context. Some have made successful bids to the COVID relief fund, the hardship fund, for this, but, of course, you can't claim back from that for undelivered savings in themselves. So, obviously, there's been a great number of impacts. I don't know if Jon, Llinos or Chris want to come in on some of the more specific details. 

Yes. I think, just quickly—I don't want to sound protective of local government, but I will say this: we've had over a decade of savings now as well. So, when I read and hear that sort of question, it's like we've only just started to make savings in Ynys Môn. We've made over £26 million of savings since 2013, and we've got one of the smallest budgets in Wales as well. So, it's just that we recognise not only the pandemic, but our ability to make savings now. Maybe the term was used too loosely at the time—that we are at the bone—but definitely by now, there's no savings, and with any transformation, it's just more challenging to complete that transformation of services. What we've seen is we've made some transformational decisions, and public protection being one of them, where we've made decisions in public protection—has there ever been a time where we recognise the value of our environmental health teams more? So, I think, also, for us as local government, we need to relook at the importance of some of our services that maybe weren't in the limelight previously as well. So, not that I'm being protective; I'm just thinking that we need to be quite aware of how difficult it is to find savings and to make those transformational journeys now as well. 

Thank you, Chair. I was just going to add to what Councillor Medi said there. Up until very recently, we were tracking and quantifying efficiency savings, and you have to differentiate—there are efficiency savings and there are service cuts as well, both of which contribute to a budget gap. And what we were finding since we were tracking them in 2014-15 was that they were gradually tapering off and what savings were available to local authorities in 2020-21, for the reasons that councillor Hunt mentioned, they just weren't able to realise those. You can't claim those from the hardship fund and so, if they are sizeable amounts of money that can't be found from elsewhere, then they will have to be funded from reserves. At the end of the day, that may be one way to make up the shortfall.

13:55

Thank you, Chair. I certainly support the comments already made. I think there are two things that I think are worth considering in response to this, and I think the first is how council officers all throughout Wales, no matter what service they normally provide or what work they normally do, they've also suddenly become front-line key workers—more key than ever; more important than ever. So, perhaps those people who might be usually having some head space to be able to work through savings, work through transformation programmes, do the appropriate consultation, make sure these things are going to be right and understand all the risks—they're the people who've been on the phones supporting track, trace and protect, they're the ones who've been out delivering personal protective equipment to nursing homes and care homes throughout our council areas. Everyone has stepped up to the mark to do things that are vitally important for our residents during an absolute crisis. So, there's certainly nothing here that is due to a lack of desire or recognising the need to deliver on some of these things, it's just the enormous effort that all officers have made and they have worked incredibly tirelessly and are continuing to do so. 

And that's the other key to this: we all know that we're right in the thick of this at the moment and many people have put in a huge number of hours and days and months of hard work, and then to be able to have some head space to be able to focus on these things that we've been maybe asking them to do is certainly not easy to say the least. That's the first thing—it's just the movement of our staff. We've moved them to the right places to do the right thing and we'll continue to do that.

And the second thing is, I'm sure that all local authorities have similar things in place, but I can speak for my own—that's the one I know of course. We have a renewal programme board looking to see what transformative initiatives can come out of this pandemic—what good things can come out of this. I'm sure you are, too. Things like this: how can we use technology in a better way? There are lots of good ideas and we're getting to a point where we know what it is we should be delivering in future years to respond to Mark's question. The problem is answering the 'when'. The 'what' is quite straightforward. We think we know what transformative things can be delivered. The problem will be the 'when'. And that, I'm sure, is something we're all trying to grapple with. 

So, coming back to what this is about perhaps in terms of planning, trying to get those plans concrete is going to be a challenge and that will provide a challenge to our budget, certainly, as well.

Okay, Sam. I think it's good to hear that you're quite clear about the 'what', even with the difficulties of the 'when'. Okay, Chris.

Thanks, Chair, it's to build on some of Sam's points. I think sometimes, outside of local government, it's difficult to appreciate the scale of the organisational challenges and the success of local government in responding to some of these challenges. So, earlier in our discussion, we talked about the increased cost pressures that authorities face in specific areas and the use of the hardship fund to recompense for that. They've also had the loss in income caused by having to close services at various times during the course of the year and, as a consequence, at the start of the pandemic, most authorities switched to an essential services model, where they focused on their core services. They've redeployed staff. They did skills audits to find out what kind of skills they had within their authorities in order to be able to redeploy staff effectively to respond to the crisis. During the course of the summer, things were relaxed and services were opened up again, which again meant significant redeployment of staff. And then, as we've had wave after wave of the crisis, authorities have had to be incredibly agile in redeploying staff according to the various needs. We've seen mass testing in some authorities. The response to the success of the track and trace system in Wales has been, in significant part, because of the support provided by authorities and again redeployment of staff. We've had some sectors—environmental health and trading standards, as Llinos mentioned—that have been stretched and pulled in all sorts of directions because of COVID, but also in preparation of the possibility of a 'no deal' Brexit.

And as we go into the future as well, again we've talked about planning, but we know that, at some point, schools will reopen. There will be pressure for catch-up sessions in terms of literacy and numeracy to make up for the ground that's been lost. There will be additional service costs incurred there. We also know that the pressures on children services and social care will increase, and again there will be costs as a consequence of the increased levels of deprivation. We know that the take-up of free school meals, for example, has increased significantly during the course of the pandemic. All of these are resulting in increased costs in the immediate term and also, despite the vaccine, we don't know how the pandemic is going to progress over the coming months. And again, we note that there aren't these immediate pressures, but we certainly don't know what's going to happen in the medium to the longer term again.

And despite the fact that authorities have got a track record of being very effective in terms of delivering services and of reconfiguring and restructuring services, I don't think anyone should underestimate the effectiveness of the way in which authorities, over the last 10 months or so, have responded, in terms of their own internal structures, to the COVID crisis.

14:00

No and, again, I think that's very much appreciated, Chris. As you say, it's been an emergency response to a real crisis, and thankfully it's been a pretty effective response in so many ways, despite all the difficulties.

Okay. Mark, back to you.

I think, between you, you've covered many of the key points that I wanted to raise. But, are there any further issues you'd like to highlight before we move on regarding the potential long-term impact of the pandemic on local service funding and in relation to incorporating some of the changes to local services that occurred as a result of the pandemic into, quote, a permanent way of working, as you referred to in your submission to the committee?

Yes, I'd be happy to comment on both of those things. First of all, on the positive, I think there have been many temporary changes that could be brought into permanent ways of working that can save money. I hope even someone as antisocial as me has missed the human contact of meeting with people, especially with my fellow council leaders, but a lot of the remote working that we've done, I think, can remain in part, even if we come together for certain things. And a lot of the cutting down on the use of cars, for example, I think, is something good that should last into the future. I think lots of the stuff we've learned about the importance of health in our communities and trying to address some of the long-term issues of ill health is certainly something that we can—. Necessity being the mother of invention, I think, certainly, we should take that sort of concept forward.

In terms of the impact on the longer term funding of services, I hope lots of the points that have been mentioned about local government really stepping up to the plate are noticed for future years. Obviously, there will be a longer term pressure on the national health service. We've seen that talked about at a UK level, thanks to the health impacts and also the impact of the delaying of non-COVID health interventions as well. So, obviously, that will take up resource. The danger, I would think, is if that resource comes at the expense of local government services, because those services have released that tap in recent months, and I hope that's recognised going forward. Because that includes things like social care, which very often doesn't get the attention that health does. I think we need to view our health and social care service as one rather than as separate things. Obviously, we've seen the ability of education to adapt to a changed circumstance, and I think anyone who is trying to home school, like I am, combined with work at the moment, will recognise the huge benefit of education. So, I hope that's something that will continue to be front and centre.

But also, I think the point that Sam made was very valid. A lot of the services that have come to the fore in the last nine months haven't just been those very front-and-centre services like social care and schools, it's been some of the cinderella services, some of the areas that have been, frankly, easy targets for savings when we've had to make savings over the last 10 years, as Llinos said, under the 10 years of austerity. Things like our environmental health teams, teams like our public protection teams, who've really come to the fore in this, both with TTP, checking premises, helping keep people safe. Also with other teams—my libraries team, for example, have been brilliant; my contact centre staff; my democratic services staff have volunteered for redeployment to help with key areas in this pandemic, and also to help contact, using their skills, some of the most vulnerable people in our communities. So, I hope that's recognised, as future budget rounds come into play, because the role that those staff have played, really, in stepping up to the plate goes to show that we're not just grey bureaucracies in local government; we are living, breathing—I'm trying to think of the word—we're living, breathing mechanisms of trying to help people within our communities, and I hope the importance of that is noted when this pandemic is hopefully long in the past.

14:05

Okay, Anthony, thanks very much for that. I'm sure that Members of the committee appreciate that picture. Llinos.

Just a few things from me. I think what's important after COVID is what we've learnt from this, how local government has been able to move quickly in different areas. But what we've also learnt, through this pandemic, is that it hasn't been a blanket approach, because different areas have been affected differently by COVID. And that's what the argument has always been for local government, that's why we need to be close to the people, because services are close, because no community is the same throughout, even a small authority like Ynys Môn. And maybe the plea of where I'm going with this is that, when we're looking at grants in future, it's not too narrow just to align with Welsh Government's intentions, which means, then, that we're limited in how we can react locally. Because sometimes we've felt that the budgets that we get have been—there are certain grants, and later on I'll raise it in the capital as well, where it might not be the right sort of funding for the local need. So, I think flexibility moving forward for us as local government to react to the implications of COVID as well, because none of us as local leaders will be facing the same challenges.

Thank you. Yes, lots of positives for us to take out of this, which is good. But I think there are some things the committee should consider in relation to social care in particular, and the first is the impact on care homes and residential homes. A very morbid conversation, sorry, but there'll be fewer people in care homes over the next few months and years, so the financial sustainability of those really needs to be considered, because I would suspect in a few years' time that what may be vacant capacity may be filled again, and I would've thought it's for this committee to consider, from a financial point of view, whether there's something that may need to be done to help tie those care and residential homes over for a couple of years to when normal comes back in terms of the number of people who may be needing access to those facilities. That's one thing. It's not necessarily long, long term, but I think it's something that is going to have a big impact. Again, speaking in Conwy, we've got one of the highest proportions of older people in the world, actually, so I'm really concerned about that.

And the second area, which may not strictly always be within a local authority's responsibility but I think there's consideration needed here, is of course the mental health impact and the long-term implications of that across all age ranges. For young people, certainly, but, I think, through all age ranges, there's a significant impact here. And the health service, of course, will be supporting at the sharp end of this, but I'm sure there are things that we can do in local government to support fewer people having to access and cause greater cost to the health service if there's some investment made available into those support areas. And, again, looking at schools and education, the mental-health impact for our young people, there are things that we could and should be doing differently to support there. I think that's something that, with a bit of investment, could make a difference and would pay off. Just with a pure, brutal financial hat on, it may pay off in the long run in terms of the financial impact on the health service as well.

14:10

Okay, Sam. Thank you. We really need to move on but, Chris, did you want to just add something?

Briefly; I appreciate that we need to move on. It's just ideas that—. Within the WLGA, we often talk about the strategy being set nationally by the Welsh Government and then delivered locally and interpreted according to local circumstances. And it's Llinos's point that what we've seen throughout the crisis is authorities being very effective in interpreting national strategy, and delivering it according to the local circumstances, and the close relationship between local government and the communities and the people that they work for and represent. That's been possible because of the flexibility of the workforce. Again, nobody should underestimate the effectiveness of the local government workforce, time after time, in responding to different aspects of the challenges we face. As an association and as local government, we believe in social partnership and the importance of the relationship between councils, the workforce, and the workforce and their communities. And what I think that then demonstrates is that the investment that takes place in local government squeezes as much value as possible from that investment. It's difficult to think about how public services could be delivered in the current climate in a more effective and efficient way because of those different relationships that are represented within local government.

Okay. Thank you very much, Chris. We will move on, then, to Huw Irranca-Davies. Huw.

Thank you, Chair. Well, I'm sure I can speed things along here a little bit. I don't need everybody, necessarily, to answer this. We're looking at the budget and the settlements under the current pressures going ahead here today, but can I ask a slightly odd question, first of all: what would your thoughts be on the quality of engagement with Welsh Government on this? Because the whole conversation has been characterised by uncertainty and challenge. Now, on that basis, it's important that we know that there is a constant dialogue, or to use the phrase of the First Minister, a 'regular, reliable rhythm' to the engagement with Welsh Government. Can you just tell us what your thoughts are as to whether that is happening? Because I would hope that it is, even if there are difficult decisions and difficult compromises to be reached. Anthony.

Thanks. I can report back very positively on that, and I think all leaders would, and that's a great credit to Julie James as local government Minister and to Mark, Vaughan and Kirsty. They've thoroughly engaged with us, sometimes to the point I'm sure they're sick of hearing our voices and seeing our faces on Teams or Zoom.

I'm sick of seeing my own face on Zoom, I tell you. They've engaged with us regularly, both on general issues that we've raised and on issues they want to raise with us. There's been that two-way dialogue. I think that credit has to go to the other 21 leaders in that as well in that we have worked constructively together. We haven't bickered down party lines or down parochial lines at all, and that dialogue has been great, and I don't think we should take that for granted. I speak to a lot of council leaders in England and it just hasn't happened, but it has in Wales. There has been that dialogue, even when the issues we're talking about have been awkward or tricky or have not resulted in complete unanimity.

14:15

Thanks, Anthony. I don't know if there's—Jon has got his hand up as well. I think it's important that we get a flavour of this on the committee, because, as you've said, local government has been exemplary in the way that it has dynamically responded to the challenges and the financial pressures and engaged, if you like, with grass roots and the communities. Probably, I would extend that as well to the wider third sector, large and small. But that flavour of real partnership in difficult times, I think is important to hear. Jon, I think you had your hand up.

I did, yes. Thank you. I just wanted to say, in supporting our political masters in their discussions, just on the officer side, we've worked hand in glove with civil servants. At the outset of the pandemic, I had the treasurers executive meeting almost every day to triage financial issues and problems, and all treasurers meeting on a weekly basis. Civil servants from the local government finance division worked tirelessly, I think, just to work through the issues we were facing, and they continue to do that. That dialogue has continued over the course of the budget and the settlement, and we hope, moving into the next financial year and establishing some kind of hardship fund for next year as well, that will continue.

Okay. That's helpful to know, and if I can extend that, then, because, when we get down to brass tacks, the £176 million local government settlement for the year ahead, you've made clear already that, in terms of underlying pressures, your calculations, the WLGA suggest that the underlying pressures alone are probably more like £279 million, and it's a bigger figure if you extrapolate that forward for the next two or three years as well. So, on that basis, that open dialogue to deal with the uncertainty, to deal with the pressures, I think is critical. Let me put a straight question to you: what are your reflections on, at this moment in time, the £176 million settlement for 2021-22, and your expectations in terms of Welsh Government going forward? Llinos.

So, because we've been in such difficult discussions before this year with budgets, obviously, we welcome this—we do welcome this. Can I just say that we're now in a relationship where I'd call it mutual respect? I think that's where we're at now, and with local issues here I've had that support, and there's a better understanding of the pressures we face as well. I hope that we've been able to prove ourselves as local government leaders in the way that we've been able to manage this crisis, as well. 

For us, it's welcome—any additional money is welcome, but also, the additional pressures—. I sometimes think that there's not enough consideration of pay increases. So, for us, locally, we're going to have a £3.5 million increase in Ynys Môn, but we're going to have a £2.4 million increase in pay and inflation, and that's without all the additional costs. So, it shows you that we're still going to have to make service cuts, find savings here in Ynys Môn and we're going to still have to raise the council tax. So, even though we welcome it, we're in a position where it doesn't mean that there won't be any savings, and it doesn't mean that there won't be any increase in council tax. It's not enough to pay for what we need now, and that's the challenge we have in local government. Everything has declined. We've done our best to keep it to—it's not the gold standard any more, I think it's up to statutory, what we should deliver, and there is a need for investment in lots of our public services, moving forward, as well. I hope that answers your question fairly.

Yes, thank you. This is in line with what Llinos was just outlining, really, and, actually, in line with the headline numbers you shared, the £270 million versus the £170 million, demand versus actual cash. So, for Conwy, our pressures into the next financial year in round numbers are about £10 million. The assessment that we received gave us an extra £5.5 million, so you can see that the ratio of what the clear pressures are versus what—welcome to get a settlement increase as it was, there's still a gap there, and then that will drive the need for continued savings, cuts, whatever you want to call it.

I think your question also was: what are the expectations for future years? I think the expectation should be a recognition of the work that local government does to deliver what residents need in our communities, and that recognition being shown through appropriate settlements to deliver those services. Otherwise, we'll just be cutting those services back continually.

14:20

Thanks. I'll bring Anthony back in, but one of the interesting things for us as a committee, Chair, is that—what I'm not picking up—. There is clearly concern over the settlements, going forward, and how they can meet the rightful demands and expectations of local residents and all the services locally as well, but I'm not picking up the fear that in other contexts you could, that that dialogue isn't going to be there, that opportunity to make the case isn't going to be there, that there isn't listening going on, that there isn't not just sympathy but some sort of understanding of those pressures from central Government. So I think for us as a committee, we want to know that when you knock on that door with justifiable demands, it's not being slammed in your face. But, Anthony, you wanted to come back in.

I recognise that that recognition is there now, and I wouldn't always have said that in the past. And just very much what Llinos said, we welcome this settlement, but please don't think it makes it easy. And I do hope this is a sign of things to come. It's what I said last year, really, that one favourable settlement is helpful but what we really need is a sustained recognition of the pressures that our services face, because the pressures that those services are under—the services we've talked about a lot in terms of social care in particular—is immense, and we need to work together and have that grown-up working relationship and a positive financial settlement to get through those issues together.

I just wanted to come back. I think your line of questioning is very interesting, because I think that surprisingly perhaps, the COVID-19 crisis has resulted in and demonstrated a maturing of the relationship between Welsh Government and local government, and I think your point is a really strong one. The dialogue and the debate between Welsh Government Ministers and the 22 leaders is incredibly close and intense, and it's something—. There are bilateral meetings between Ministers and individual leaders on a weekly basis. But also, because of Teams, amazingly, there's an intimacy about these meetings. The 22 leaders meet on an almost weekly basis with the local government Minister, Julie James. Rebecca Evans as the Finance Minister has also said that she will meet the 22 leaders whenever they want to discuss finance or related issues. So, your question about the audience, the idea of the Government listening, that clearly is the case, and hopefully it will be one of the lessons learned going forward from this crisis, the capacity of the system to generate those kinds of meetings. So, recently for example, last week, I think the local government partnership council met. For the first time, all 22 leaders took part in those meetings, and there's a possibility—we have a finance sub-group, and there's actually the possibility now that all 22 leaders can take part in the finance sub-group meetings as well.

And then on the point that we have welcomed the settlement, this is a crude simplification, if you like, but when we identified the funding pressures, the first thing we looked at is meeting the pay and price inflationary pressures, the next thing is meeting the demand pressures that have grown within different service areas during the course of the year, and the third element then is the additional burdens that are placed on local government, and this settlement goes a long way to meeting the first two elements of those pressures, as I think the elected members have said. It's still challenging and difficult for authorities, but of course it's on the back of many years of austerity. So, again, we need to look at the settlement within that context as well.

14:25

That point is well made. Chair, I think I've covered everything that I want to, but just as one member of this committee, and I'm sure we'd all say it as well, just thanks for all that you, your staff, your members are doing. It really has shown the importance of local government, and local partnerships as well, so thank you.

I'm sure we all agree very much with that, Huw. Okay, Mandy Jones has the next questions. Mandy.

Thank you, Chair. I'd like to talk to you all about non-domestic rates. Could you tell me whether the WLGA would expect the Welsh Government to increase any funding if the shortfall in NDR is higher than anticipated?

Thank you, Chair. I was going to come in first with a kind of officer answer to this, because I think lying behind it is a technical understanding of the way the settlement works. It's a very, very good question, because ordinarily, local government is just concerned about the overall level of grant that's coming to us, the core grant—what's technically referred to as aggregate external finance—and what underlies Mandy Jones's question is the fact that aggregate external finance is made up of two things: it's made up of the revenue support grant on the one hand, which is within the Welsh Government's DEL, and non-domestic rates on the other, which is in the Welsh Government's annual managed expenditure.

Now, the non-domestic rates are what's called the contributions pool, because it's a pooled arrangement rather different to the arrangements that obtain in England for local government finance, where rates have been almost localised and are part of local funding. In Wales, they operate as a kind of pool, so there's an in-built insurance policy there, which in part is maybe some of the answer to Mandy Jones's question, in that, from year to year, sometimes the pool is higher, sometimes the pool's lower, and in fact for this financial year, for 2020-21, from memory, the level of the non-domestic pool had actually risen by about £70 million. This year it has dropped by about £50 million, £55 million. We'd expect the Welsh Government really to keep the levels of aggregate external finance quite level behind that.

Obviously, there's an additional issue this year. It's not just the volatility of the pool itself, but obviously there's a question about the receipts going into the pool. My leaders there have already mentioned issues about income loss. Now, that broad issue of income loss also applies to local taxation, and may touch on council tax. There's the same issue with non-domestic rates as well, because we know that there's currently a dip in the receipts for this year, and I think it's higher than the reduction in the pool—it's about £80 million. The question is whether that is just a temporary dip in receipts or whether they'll be recoverable in the longer term. If they're recoverable, there may not be a problem, and sometimes these things are managed over a long period of time. I suppose the short answer to that rather technical question is: it depends.

Okay. Right, I'm going to go off par here, but it's still to do with NDRs. Many of the small businesses on our high streets will be the ones that fail due to the lockdowns. Many are eligible for rates relief. To my understanding, empty business premises pay full business rates. Has there been an assessment of the impact that empty shops have had on the NDR revenue coming in?

14:30

I certainly can; I'm certainly prepared to go back and do a little bit of research into that for Mandy Jones and other committee members and hand it back to the clerk.

Yes, if that's okay, just to talk about the issue. We very much recognise the impact of the pandemic as a whole on small businesses, particularly on our high streets. I would like to pay tribute to the officers in our business support and revenues and benefits-type sections for the way they've got money out to businesses as quickly as possible. The amount of money they got out in the short term has been nothing short of remarkable. And I know that can't replace the revenue that they've lost due to the pandemic, but I do recognise the difficulty that this pandemic has caused for small businesses, and I would thank the staff in councils who've done their utmost to try and offset that.

Okay, Anthony. Thanks very much. Again, I think as local Members we're all familiar with that effort. Okay, Mandy.

Right. Sam and Anthony touched on this earlier about the funding floor. For Wrexham, it's 2.3 per cent, so at the lower end. I'm concerned about business rates, businesses going bust. In the NDR, will there be any exemption for empty buildings?

I don't know whether this is more of a matter for Welsh Government rather than local authorities. Anybody want to venture an opinion?

I think it's a matter, Chair, of national policy. There are certain discretions that local authorities may give to businesses, but, as I said, I can get a detailed note on that. Just to add some figures to the point that Councillor Hunt made around business grants that have been issued this year, you'll know the efforts that have gone into distributing the funds to small businesses, ending up with what were the pre-Christmas restrictions grants. I think we've distributed nearly £80 million-worth of funds that cover just that small period, but when you add it all up with the firebreak grants, and when you add that to the grants that were distributed to businesses under the original lockdown, you're talking well over £1 billion-worth of support that Mandy Jones raises a salient question about in terms of what further reliefs were available, and I can check that out for you. 

Okay. Just a tiny one. Sam touched on this earlier. What areas of council services are you spending less on at this moment in time? [Inaudible.]—as you've already said, you've—[Inaudible.]—practices to keep on going—[Inaudible.] So, do you know our savings for this money at the moment and what you will do?

Mandy, you're breaking up at the moment, but I think we got the gist of what you asked, which is basically which services are local authorities saving money on because their expenditure is less now than it was before the pandemic. I think that's basically it.

Savings have been on, obviously, vehicles, any sort of printing—all those sorts of savings. We've been sharing those savings with Welsh Government, so that they're aware of them as well, just in that reporting mechanism around the hardship fund, so that they know that we've actually made savings and that we're not being greedy in the ask on the hardship fund. So, we've shared that information where the savings have been, but we've also made local decisions to invest in IT. IT was a service pressure for us, obviously, so we used a lot of the savings locally in Ynys Môn to put some money into IT. In the beginning, we had to deploy everybody at home and get everybody working from home and there was a cost there, so those savings have been sent in other directions as well, but we have informed Welsh Government of those savings.

14:35

Yes. Just to add to what Councillor Medi has said, then, it's important to say that the operation of the hardship fund is a claims-based process. I think, so far, local government has claimed around about £300 million from that funding in this financial year, and the important point is that those claims have been claims of net pressures. So, we've taken the total pressure, we've netted off any savings, and just claimed the net amount not the gross amount, and that's a system we've worked up with Welsh Government officials.

Okay. My final question is: what impact is on the NDR multiplier for 2021-22 going to have on future local government settlements?

Okay. Who would like to answer that? The freeze on the NDR multiplier for 2021-22 and the effect that will have on future settlements. It's a technical one, and I think—. Jon? Oh, sorry. Anthony?

Yes. The answer to the question is not dissimilar to the question that was asked about the reduction in the pool contribution. Obviously, ordinarily, the NDR multiplier is pegged to the rate of inflation, so if it's kept level then obviously the receipts aren't as much as they otherwise would have been, and again, it's back to this question about what happens then. Will RSG in subsequent years and the way the pool operates actually compensate for that reduction? I think we'll have to wait and see. But, as local government, we're just concerned with the overall envelope of aggregate external finance, and whether that matches up with our pressures. Is the 3.8 per cent enough at the end of the day? It is an important point.

Yes, okay. Are you happy with that, Anthony? Did you want to add anything? No, that's okay. Okay, thank you very much. We'll move on, then, to Dawn. Dawn Bowden.

Thanks, Chair. My questions are going to be around council tax and the council tax reduction scheme, and I think Llinos and Anthony started to explore some of this with the answers to Huw, a little bit, earlier on, but I wanted to focus particularly on politicians here, because council tax setting is very much a political decision in terms of the level at which council tax rates are set. I just wondered how much the settlement this year has influenced and impacted the council tax settlements across Wales—local authorities across Wales.

Obviously, it's a positive aspect of those negotiations, because council tax is very often talked about by the public in isolation of the other funding issues that we face, but it's very much part of them. It's one of the few things that we can do as councils ourselves to try and meet that gap that doesn't involve cutting or closing services. Obviously, having a positive settlement, for example, in Torfaen, means that we don't have the upward pressure that provokes conversations about council tax. I don't think any councillor willingly gets into a conversation about council tax rises, because we'd rather do the popular thing and not put it up, but we realise that if we were to do that it would have an impact, both in the short and the long term, on the funding of services. So, I believe that the impact of the settlement will be a positive one in trying to prevent some of the larger increases in council tax that we've seen in other years.

Yes. I think this is the tax that I find is difficult, because the 1 per cent in Ynys Môn is totally different to the 1 per cent in Gwynedd—I think it's nearly double. When we discuss council tax, I feel it's a very narrow conversation, without taking the wider—. And that's the issue we have. I would say, as a leader of an authority that did everything possible to keep us amongst the lowest in Wales, it is challenging then when people are telling you that they're willing to pay that 4p or 5p a week more in their council tax just to safeguard their public services as well.

There is a need for a wider discussion around council tax. I do think it's an unfair tax, but yet again, this is the mechanism we have as local leaders to make financial—these help us balance the books and these also help us in those service pressures where—. You know, social services was one where, two years ago, we had to make a massive hike in Ynys Môn, but we knew that social services weren't in a good place and we had to address it. And if we hadn't made that mature decision then, we wouldn't have—. I wouldn't like to add COVID onto it. So, I think we need that wider discussion. I'm really concerned that all the press wants to grab is the percentage, but that isn't the true discussion that we should be having around council tax.

14:40

Of course, you've opened up a whole new can of worms there, Llinos. That's a whole different debate about local government funding formulas, isn't it? We've had that discussion in many different committees, haven't we?

I'm sorry. It's just that sometimes, we're unable to get it over, and not everyone I speak to respect the difficulties. And also, we're never comparing like with like on service pressures, either.

Sure, yes. Okay, that's fine, thanks for that. I'm just wondering as well now, obviously, we know the impact that the pandemic has had on lots of our communities, particularly on deprived communities, but across the board, really. So, you've obviously had challenges in terms of council tax collections. Are you satisfied that the finance Minister and local government Minister, with the assurances that they've given you about additional funding, that you may be getting to compensate that, basically?

Without trying to sound like Donald Rumsfeld, which I always try to avoid, [Laughter.] there are the known unknowns with regard to the council tax reduction scheme and we can see the extra pressure that's been put on that system because of the impact of the pandemic. And the collection rate is, in some ways, the unknown unknown, because how much of that will come back? How much of that will still be an issue that we'll have to discuss with Welsh Government? I'm confident that both the finance Minister and the local government Minister are aware of the challenges that we face and are willing to discuss it with us and have made reassuring noises to us that we can have that discussion, because that's one we'll have to have with Welsh Government as these things play out towards the end of the financial year.

And can I just ask, then, on the back of that: are you planning for an increased demand in the CTRS for next year? Is that your thinking at this stage—that you've got to plan for that?

Certainly, locally, that's been my experience, and it's about £11 million running higher than last year. Welsh Government are working with us to fund that and we'd hope that that arrangement continues, really, because obviously, CTRS is affected by the horrible things that this pandemic has caused, like people's incomes and jobs being affected, so we'd hope—we're in a position in Wales where we have got 100 per cent relief scheme, which I think, sometimes, is forgotten, that that's not the case in other places in the UK. You've got parts of the UK where councils are operating on as low as a 75 per cent relief system, and therefore, you've got people in great hardship still having to pay part of their bills. We've not got that in Wales; we want to continue that and we want to continue to work with Welsh Government to make sure that that's fundable, moving forwards, even though it's more expensive than it was because of the pandemic. So, that's something that we'd hope continues.

Are you happy with that, Dawn? Yes, okay. We'll move on, then, to Delyth Jewell.

Diolch, Gadeirydd. Diolch yn fawr iawn ichi gyd am y dystiolaeth dŷch chi'n ei rhoi i ni heddiw. A jest i ategu beth oedd Huw yn ei ddweud yn gynharach, diolch ichi gyd am bopeth dŷch chi wedi bod yn ei wneud yn ystod y pandemig. 

Roeddwn i eisiau gofyn i chi am wasanaethau y buasai'n cael eu disgrifio yn Saesneg fel 'demand led', pethau fel gwasanaethau gofal, iechyd meddwl a gwasanaethau plant. Mae wedi dod lan nifer o weithiau yn ystod y dystiolaeth y prynhawn yma o ran yr effaith y bydd y pandemig yn ei gael ar y gwasanaethau yna. Roeddwn i'n nodi hefyd beth roedd Sam wedi'i ddweud ynglŷn â'r effaith fydd y pandemig yn ei gael ar gynaladwyedd yn y cartrefi gofal yn sicr. A allwch chi plîs ddweud wrthon ni ychydig am y pwysau oedd ar y gwasanaethau yma cyn COVID, a hefyd yr effaith ychwanegol nawr mae'r pandemig wedi cael naill ai ar ba mor gynaliadwy ydyn nhw, neu sut i'w hariannu nhw, neu o ran yr aelodau staff sydd yna ar eu cyfer nhw? Pwy bynnag sydd eisiau mynd yn gyntaf.

Thank you very much to all of you for the evidence that you've given us today. And just to endorse what Huw has said, thank you to all of you for everything that you have been doing during the pandemic.

I wanted to ask you about the services that would be described as 'demand led' in English, so care services, mental health services and children's services. It's come up several times during the evidence that we've heard this afternoon in terms of the impact that the pandemic will have on those services. I note also what Sam said about the impact that the pandemic will have on the sustainability of care homes certainly. Could you please tell us a little bit about the pressure that was on these services pre COVID, and also the additional pressure now that the pandemic has had on either how sustainable those services are or how they're funded, or on the staff members, indeed, who are there for them? Whoever wants to go first. 

14:45

Ie, mi wnaf i fynd yn gyntaf os dŷch chi eisiau. Yr her ydy ein bod ni dim ond efo ychydig o amser ar ôl achos, yn fan yma, buaswn i'n gallu mynd drwy bob un adran ac adnabod lle fydd y pwysau oherwydd y pandemig. A phan oedden ni'n cynllunio gwasanaethau yn flaenorol, roedd gennym ni well dealltwriaeth o anghenion cymdeithas. Beth dydyn ni ddim yn gwybod ydy effaith y COVID rŵan ar gymdeithas yn yr hirdymor. Felly, doedden ni erioed yn meddwl buasem ni'n gweld digartrefedd fel mae o, y pwysau ar y cynllun treth cyngor, a beth dŷn ni'n ei weld ydy pobl yn dod i ofyn am wasanaethau, yn enwedig ym maes gwasanaethau cymdeithasol plant, fuasai byth yn dod ar ein gofyn ni yn flaenorol. Mae hwnna'n rhywbeth mae'n rhaid i mi nodi. Dŷn ni'n gweld pwysau pobl yn dod atom ni. Yn lle ein bod ni'n gorfod mynd at deuluoedd, maen nhw'n dod atom ni rŵan yn teimlo'r pwysau.

Ac yn ychwanegol ydy dyfodol addysg ein plant ni hefyd a'r pwysau mae hwnna'n mynd i roi. Felly, mae yna nifer, ac mae o ym mhob maes. Mae hwn wedi cyffwrdd pob un maes o fewn ein gwasanaethau ni fel awdurdodau lleol.

Beth dwi'n meddwl o ran yn lleol i ni, a dwi'n meddwl o drafodaethau efo'r arweinyddion i gyd—dŷn ni wedi dod i nabod ein gilydd yn dda—beth dŷn ni wedi'i weld ydy hefyd capasiti arbenigedd. Mae nifer o awdurdodau wedi bod yn gwneud toriadau dros y blynyddoedd ac wedi bod efallai'n torri ar gynlluniau hyfforddiant achos bod nhw ddim yn cael effaith uniongyrchol ar y cyhoedd. Ond erbyn rŵan dŷn ni'n gweld mae'r arbenigedd efallai wedi mynd mewn rhai meysydd oherwydd roedd o'n easy saving, gwnawn ni ddweud, i'w wneud ar y pryd achos dŷn ni wedi trio gwarchod unrhyw wasanaeth i'r cyhoedd drwy'r adeg. Felly, mae yna feysydd, a dwi'n meddwl bod gwarchod y cyhoedd, a iechyd yr amgylchedd yn un lle mae yna bryder mawr ynglŷn ag arbenigedd. Felly, mae workforce issue i'r dyfodol o wneud yn siŵr bod gennym ni staff cymwys i ymateb. 

Dwi'n meddwl bod yna her i ni fel awdurdodau lleol o bwy fydd eisiau gweithio i awdurdod lleol ar ôl hyn achos mae'n staff ni wedi gweithio yn ofnadwy o galed, ac maen nhw wedi ymrwymo yn llawn i'w hardaloedd, ac mae hwnna yn mynd i fod yn her i ni. Ac, wedyn, yr unknown clir yna sydd gennym ni o'r effaith ar bob un gwasanaeth. A dydy hynna ddim yn fi yn gwrthod ateb; mi fuaswn i'n gallu gwneud pob math o scenario planning ar hyn, ond dwi'n meddwl buaswn i dal yn—. Achos, ar hyn o bryd, beth sydd angen cofio ydy ein bod ni'n dal yn yr argyfwng, ac felly, dydyn ni'n methu hyd yn oed meddwl eto sut fydd y gymdeithas yn edrych ar ddiwedd yr argyfwng achos bod ni'n dal yn ei ganol o. 

Yes, I'll go first. The challenge is that we only have a little bit of time left, because I could through each department and identify where the pressures will be in terms of the pandemic. And when we were planning services previously, we had a better understanding of the needs of society. What we don't know is what the impact of COVID will be now on the long-term situation for society. So, we would never see what the level of homelessness is at the moment, and what we've seen is that people are coming in to request services, particularly with regard to children's services, those people who would never have asked for that previously. So, we're seeing additional pressure in terms of people coming to us rather than us having to go to families. So, we're feeling that pressure now.

And in addition, the future of education for our children, the pressure that that's going to cause. So, that pressure is seen in every area. It touches on all areas within the services that we provide as local authorities. 

What I think, locally to us, and I think in discussions with all of the leaders—we've gotten to know each other well over the past period—is capacity in terms of expertise. A number of the authorities have been making cuts over the years. There have been cuts on training schemes, perhaps because they weren't having a direct impact on the public. But, now, we're seeing that that expertise has gone in some areas because it was an easy saving to make at the time because we've tried to safeguard any public-facing services. So, there are areas, and I think that public safety and environmental health is where there's a great deal of concern about expertise. So, it's a workforce issue for the future to ensure that we have qualified staff to respond. 

I think there is a challenge for us as local authorities in terms of who would want to work for a local authority after this because our staff have worked extremely hard, and they've made a full commitment to localities, and that's been a challenge for us as well. And then it's the clear unknown that we have in terms of the impact on all of the services. That's not me not answering your question; we could do all kinds of scenario planning on this, but we—. Because, at the moment, what we need to remember is that we're still in the middle of this crisis, and so, we can't even think yet what society will look like at the end of the crisis because we're still in its midst. 

Yes, just on that point that Llinos made at the end, I agree with everything she said, and there's the impact on the 'during' phase, and then there's the impact on the 'after' phase. Certainly, the after phase, you talked about children's services, you talked about mental health services. Certainly, there are signs that that will cause extra pressure in the after phase, and other services like our play service, for example, have been brilliant in stepping in and completely changing what they do overnight to provide support in a COVID environment, as opposed to a holiday play scheme environment, and that's been fantastic. But what will be the pressure on those services going forward?

The other thing I'd say as well is that, in order to fund some of those demand-led services over the last 10 years, we've unavoidably and unfortunately in many respects, cut back on some of the behind-the-scenes services. Every time I go into our planning officer's department to talk about the budget, they wince and they probably fire little arrows at me, because they've been in a—. Environmental health, public protection—those have shown their real value in the last few months and I don't think we're going to be able to rob money off them to pay for some of those demand-led services in the future. So, that will be an added challenge there as well. 

Yes, thanks. I think, to reassure Anthony, I'm sure all of his officers love him for all he's doing in his council.

Demand-led services, they are, in short, under much, much more demand, and that will be continuing for months and possibly years ahead as a result of all this. So, considering the finances of that, trying to understand how significant this lockdown is going to be is the challenge. So, therefore, how much money do we just throw at this? Because we're obviously planning and budgeting for the spend this time next year. So, trying to figure out what that might mean is extremely difficult. But the children's services element, I think, is really important to consider. There's massive demand there, and it's the impact, of course, on our already stretched staff and teams, and because of the way we are working, which has many benefits like this. But there are some things that may be being missed in terms of human contact between members of staff, who are working in quite difficult situations quite often, and I think that should be reflected on, and to consider how we work through that during this time, as they're going to be under more and more pressure and perhaps may have less human contact with others to relieve some of that pressure at times as well. So, how we work through that is going to be a challenge, but those demand-led services are certainly under more and more demand.

14:50

Thanks for that. Do any of you—. I definitely take the point that you're making in terms of the fact that it's going to be almost an impossibility to plan accurately how that demand is going to map out over the coming months, because as Llinos pointed out, or it may have been Anthony, we are still in the pandemic at the moment, and we still don't actually know when we're going to—you know, we've turned one corner with the vaccinations now being administered, but we still don't quite know how long it's going to go on. We don't know what the impact of long COVID is going to be or the impact on people's mental health of all ages, but perhaps particularly young people and children. Is there anything—. In terms of finances and being able to put the resource behind planning—an impossible task there—is there anything extra that you think that the Welsh Government could be doing, either with finances or with any other kind of resource, to help you and your staff cope with, not only the task of doing it, but also the added pressure that that would be putting on you when you're trying to plan out something where you can't actually know how it's going to go yet?

If I could come in, Chair, just quickly on maybe trying to quantify some of this. We do have quite a lot of data from hardship built up over the hardship fund now of how much money these services have cost since the beginning of April in this financial year. So, just for example, we know for the first quarter, the claims for adult social care have totalled something like £45 million. For quarter two, then, when we came out of lockdown, they dropped down to about £25 million. I'd expect to see it at about £20 million for quarter three and maybe a little bit less for quarter four. Now, we can do that with other funds within the hardship fund as well. So, the free school meals and the homelessness as well—that's an important fund. These things have all been paid out on monthly claims, so there's plenty of data and intelligence in the services that have been funded now that may just help us and give us a clue as to what the demands will be, and the funds that will be needed to fund those demands maybe going into the next year and beyond.

So, we have been working, as authorities, on a recovery plan in full: so, we've been looking at the recovery in social services, economy and in community, and we've been doing all that work already. I think my plea for Welsh Government is that there will be extra funding, because as Jon's mentioned there, it's the here and now—the pressures we face here and now and not the additional pressures; it's about dealing with the here and now, moving forward. So, it's quite unclear that the funding—that there's flexibility in that funding, I think, is my plea. Because I am concerned that we'll have these recovery plans, that additional funding will come, but I'm just concerned that they'll be too narrow and might not have the impact we need locally. So, I think that's one thing I would ask. And going back to—. I said 'the mutual trust'; we've shown that we understand governance more than any other public body—we're accountable before we've left our front door, let alone anywhere else, as leaders—and that there's that trust in us to deliver as well. I think that, moving forward, would be a great step forward to make sure that that money is spent in the right way locally. And the recovery plans are quite varied as well, because I would imagine that Torfaen, that Anthony and I, will have different pressures—similar, but different.

14:55

Thanks, Chair. I'm just sitting here reflecting on us talking like these budgets are going to be pretty bang on for the next 12 months, when we hardly know what's going to happen from one week to the next at the moment in terms of the impact of COVID, so I think my ask would be, practically, that, through the financial year, this engagement continues and a willingness to be flexible and a willingness to recognise pressures as they pop up, and to support those pressures as they come along. So, it's one thing setting a budget, and we'll do it and we'll stick to it as best as we can, but I think the engagement that has been experienced and the willingness to support when needed—that shouldn't be removed from the table; actually, that should continue. I'm conscious that, for you as Members of the Senedd, you have an election coming up at some point, so I hope, even during some times of perhaps political uncertainty, that those conversations can still be held so that we can address these issues as and when they come along through the next 12 months.

Very quickly, that 12-month engagement is vital; I agree very much with what Sam said there. Also, about what Llinos said about what we're doing to try and plan with some of those services, I was just, very quickly, going to say that we talk a lot about uncertainty, about the impact of this on some of the client groups you talk about in those demand-led services—vulnerable children, for example; there is a great deal of concern about what the lockdown has meant for them if we haven't been able to see them in many of the formal settings that we've seen them in previously. I'm also concerned about the impact on staff in some of those areas. It's quite a lonely thing being a council leader on Teams; it must be even worse when you're dealing with lots of very sensitive and sometimes harrowing cases in areas like children services, and you've not got that face-to-face camaraderie with your fellow workers. So, I worry about the long-term impacts of this on our staff as well, and I think that's something we've got to keep an eye on.

I'm really glad you put that on the record. I think that is something that—. I agree fully with that.

Diolch, Cadeirydd. Rwy'n hapus iawn gyda hynna.

Thank you, Chair. I'm happy with that.

Diolch yn fawr, Delyth. Okay. Well, let me just thank you all, then, for coming in to give evidence to committee today. It has been very useful. It's very good to hear that all the leaders have worked together very closely during this period of the pandemic, and also that the working relationship with Welsh Government has been very good. We know from previous evidence we've heard that the partnerships that you have with other organisations, such as the voluntary sector, have been very important in dealing with the challenges as well. We're acutely aware that the pandemic is a huge challenge to the whole world, to the UK and Wales, and local government as key deliverers of local services are absolutely instrumental in providing for people during these really difficult times. So, I'm sure the committee would like to end by just saying a huge thank you to local government in Wales, and we'd very much like you to convey that to all of your staff, to the workforce putting in those hours, putting in that effort, day in, day out, to help get us through this left-of-field crisis that nobody could have foreseen. Thank you very much. Diolch yn fawr.

3. Papurau i’w nodi
3. Paper(s) to note

Okay, then, the next item on our agenda today is papers to note. We have a number of papers to note. Are there any points that anybody wanted to make on any of those? We've got paper 1—. Well, actually, we haven't got a paper 1—we've got paper 2 that we start with, for some reason, which is the letter from the Minister for Health and Social Services to the ombudsman with regard to the NHS complaints data. Paper 3 is a letter from the Minister for Housing and Local Government on fire safety in high-rise buildings. Paper 4, a letter from the Deputy Minister and Chief Whip on the impact of COVID-19 on the voluntary sector. Paper 5, a letter from the Bevan Foundation to the First Minister in relation to poverty and COVID-19. Paper 6, a submission from the Bevan Foundation in relation to poverty in winter and COVID-19. Paper 7, a letter from the Deputy Minister and Chief Whip in relation to the domestic abuse Bill. And finally in papers, a joint letter from the Minister for Housing and Local Government and the Minister for Education to the Chair of the Children, Young People and Education Committee in relation to the Welsh Government's draft budget for the forthcoming financial year. Are Members content to note all of those papers? Okay. That's great. Thank you very much.

15:00
4. Cynnig o dan Reol Sefydlog 17.42(ix) i benderfynu gwahardd y cyhoedd o weddill y cyfarfod
4. Motion under Standing Order 17.42(ix) to resolve to exclude the public from the remainder of the meeting

Cynnig:

bod y pwyllgor yn penderfynu gwahardd y cyhoedd o weddill y cyfarfod yn unol â Rheol Sefydlog 17.42(ix).

Motion:

that the committee resolves to exclude the public from the remainder of the meeting in accordance with Standing Order 17.42(ix).

Cynigiwyd y cynnig.

Motion moved.

Item 4, then, is a motion under Standing Order 17.42 to resolve to exclude the public from the remainder of this meeting. Are there any objections? No. Okay, thank you very much. We will then move into private session.

Derbyniwyd y cynnig.

Daeth rhan gyhoeddus y cyfarfod i ben am 15:01.

Motion agreed.

The public part of the meeting ended at 15:01.